[1] |
朱乾根, 林锦瑞,寿绍文,等. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 4版. 北京:气象出版社,2007: 475-484.
|
[2] |
黄士松, 余志豪. 副热带高压结构及其同大气环流有关若干问题的研究[J]. 气象学报, 1962, 31(4): 339-359.
|
[3] |
FUJITA T T, WATANABE K, IZAWA T. Formation and structure of equatorial anticyclones caused by large-scale cross-equatorial flows determined by ATS-I photographs[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1969, 8(4): 649-667.
|
[4] |
SADLER J C, BRETT W R, HARRIS B E, et al. Forecasting minimum cloudiness over the Red River Delta during the summer monsoon[R]. Honolulu:Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1968.
|
[5] |
陶诗言, 朱福康. 夏季亚洲南部 100 毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J]. 气象学报, 1964, 34(4): 385-396.
|
[6] |
陶诗言, 王作述, 朱福康. 中国夏季副热带天气系统若干问题的研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社,1963.
|
[7] |
HUANG R, CHEN J, WANG L, et al. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 29(5): 910-942.
|
[8] |
HE C, ZHOU T, WU B. The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2015, 29(4): 562-575.
|
[9] |
MATSUMURA S, HORINOUCHI T. Pacific Ocean decadal forcing of long-term changes in the western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Scientific Reports, 2016(6):37765.
|
[10] |
吴国雄, 丑纪范, 刘屹岷, 等. 副热带高压形成和变异的动力学问题[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002: 312.
|
[11] |
HE Jinhai, ZHOU Bing, WEN Min, et al. Vertical circulation structure,interannual variation features and variation mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 18(4): 497-510.
|
[12] |
赵声蓉, 宋正山. 华北汛期旱涝与中高纬大气环流异常[J]. 高原气象, 1999, 18(4): 535-540.
|
[13] |
韦道明, 李崇银, 谭言科. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压南北位置变动特征及其影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(3): 255-272.
|
[14] |
任广成, 吴小林, 李旺. 盛夏副高脊线异常变化对我国气温影响及海气背景分析[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2009, 32(3): 1-5.
|
[15] |
张韧. 基于前传式网络逼近的太平洋副热带高压活动的诊断预测[J]. 大气科学, 2001, 25(5):650-660.
|
[16] |
刘科峰, 张韧, 洪梅, 等. 基于最小二乘支持向量机的副热带高压预测模型[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(3): 354.
|
[17] |
杨杰, 封国林, 赵俊虎, 等. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示[J]. 气象学报, 2012, 70(5): 1032.
|
[18] |
贾亚俊, 胡轶佳, 钟中, 等. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压指数的统计预测模型[J]. 高原气象, 2015 (5): 1369-1378.
|
[19] |
SUI C H, CHUNG P H, LI T. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(11) :93-104.
|
[20] |
LU R, DING H, RYU C S, et al. Midlatitude westward propagating disturbances preceding intraseasonal oscillations of convection over the subtropical western North Pacific during summer[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(21) :393-407.
|
[21] |
ZHANG Z, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997, 78(12): 2785-2795.
|
[22] |
郑飞. ENSO集合预报研究[D]. 北京:中国科学院研究生院(大气物理研究所),2007.
|
[23] |
周文友,智协飞.2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报[J].气象科学,2012,32(5): 492-499.
|
[24] |
林春泽, 智协飞, 韩艳, 等. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温多模式超级集合预报[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009,20(6):706-712.
|
[25] |
ZHI X, QI H, BAI Y, et al. A comparison of three kinds of multimodel ensemble forecast techniques based on the TIGGE data[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2012, 26: 41-51.
|
[26] |
崔慧慧, 智协飞. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温延伸期多模式集成预报[J]. 大气科学学报, 2013, 36(2): 165-173.
|
[27] |
智协飞, 季晓东, 张璟, 等. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温和降水的多模式集成预报[J]. 大气科学学报, 2013, 36(3): 257-266.
|
[28] |
RICHARDSON D, BUIZZA R, HAGEDORN R. Final report of the 1st Workshop on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)[R]. World Meteorological Organization WMO/TD, 2005.
|
[29] |
Sounding data[DB/OL].[2017-01-20].http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/seasia.html
|
[30] |
TALAGRAND O, VAUTARD R, STRAUSS B. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems[C]//Proceedings of ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997, 1: 25.
|
[31] |
BRIER G W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1950, 78(1): 1-3.
|
[32] |
李莉, 李应林, 田华, 等. T213 全球集合预报系统性误差订正研究[J]. 气象, 2011, 37(1): 31-38.
|
[33] |
HAMILL T M, D'ENTREMONT R P, BUNTIN J T. A description of the air force real-time nephanalysis model[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1992, 7(2): 288-306.
|
[34] |
HAMILL T M, WHITAKER J S, SNYDER C. Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalmanfilter[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2001, 129(11): 2776-2790.
|
[35] |
CARTWRIGHT T J, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts in the southeastern United States[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2007, 22(4): 873-886.
|
[36] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, KISHTAWAL C M, ZHANG Z, et al. Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2000, 13(23): 4196-4216.
|
[37] |
HE C, ZHI X, YOU Q, et al. Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2015, 127(4): 467-479.
|
[38] |
MURPHY A H, EPSTEIN E S. Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1989, 117(3): 572-582.
|
[39] |
NIU R, ZHAI P. Synoptic verification of medium-extended-range forecasts of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high and South Asian high based on multi-center TIGGE data[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2013, 27(5): 725-741.
|
[40] |
NIU R, ZHAI P, ZHOU B. Evaluation of forecast performance of Asian summer monsoon low-level winds using the TIGGE dataset[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2015, 30(2): 455-470.
|
[1] |
朱乾根, 林锦瑞,寿绍文,等. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 4版. 北京:气象出版社,2007: 475-484.
|
[2] |
黄士松, 余志豪. 副热带高压结构及其同大气环流有关若干问题的研究[J]. 气象学报, 1962, 31(4): 339-359.
|
[3] |
FUJITA T T, WATANABE K, IZAWA T. Formation and structure of equatorial anticyclones caused by large-scale cross-equatorial flows determined by ATS-I photographs[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1969, 8(4): 649-667.
|
[4] |
SADLER J C, BRETT W R, HARRIS B E, et al. Forecasting minimum cloudiness over the Red River Delta during the summer monsoon[R]. Honolulu:Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1968.
|
[5] |
陶诗言, 朱福康. 夏季亚洲南部 100 毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J]. 气象学报, 1964, 34(4): 385-396.
|
[6] |
陶诗言, 王作述, 朱福康. 中国夏季副热带天气系统若干问题的研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社,1963.
|
[7] |
HUANG R, CHEN J, WANG L, et al. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 29(5): 910-942.
|
[8] |
HE C, ZHOU T, WU B. The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2015, 29(4): 562-575.
|
[9] |
MATSUMURA S, HORINOUCHI T. Pacific Ocean decadal forcing of long-term changes in the western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Scientific Reports, 2016(6):37765.
|
[10] |
吴国雄, 丑纪范, 刘屹岷, 等. 副热带高压形成和变异的动力学问题[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002: 312.
|
[11] |
HE Jinhai, ZHOU Bing, WEN Min, et al. Vertical circulation structure,interannual variation features and variation mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 18(4): 497-510.
|
[12] |
赵声蓉, 宋正山. 华北汛期旱涝与中高纬大气环流异常[J]. 高原气象, 1999, 18(4): 535-540.
|
[13] |
韦道明, 李崇银, 谭言科. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压南北位置变动特征及其影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(3): 255-272.
|
[14] |
任广成, 吴小林, 李旺. 盛夏副高脊线异常变化对我国气温影响及海气背景分析[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2009, 32(3): 1-5.
|
[15] |
张韧. 基于前传式网络逼近的太平洋副热带高压活动的诊断预测[J]. 大气科学, 2001, 25(5):650-660.
|
[16] |
刘科峰, 张韧, 洪梅, 等. 基于最小二乘支持向量机的副热带高压预测模型[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(3): 354.
|
[17] |
杨杰, 封国林, 赵俊虎, 等. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示[J]. 气象学报, 2012, 70(5): 1032.
|
[18] |
贾亚俊, 胡轶佳, 钟中, 等. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压指数的统计预测模型[J]. 高原气象, 2015 (5): 1369-1378.
|
[19] |
SUI C H, CHUNG P H, LI T. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(11) :93-104.
|
[20] |
LU R, DING H, RYU C S, et al. Midlatitude westward propagating disturbances preceding intraseasonal oscillations of convection over the subtropical western North Pacific during summer[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(21) :393-407.
|
[21] |
ZHANG Z, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997, 78(12): 2785-2795.
|
[22] |
郑飞. ENSO集合预报研究[D]. 北京:中国科学院研究生院(大气物理研究所),2007.
|
[23] |
周文友,智协飞.2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报[J].气象科学,2012,32(5): 492-499.
|
[24] |
林春泽, 智协飞, 韩艳, 等. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温多模式超级集合预报[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009,20(6):706-712.
|
[25] |
ZHI X, QI H, BAI Y, et al. A comparison of three kinds of multimodel ensemble forecast techniques based on the TIGGE data[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2012, 26: 41-51.
|
[26] |
崔慧慧, 智协飞. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温延伸期多模式集成预报[J]. 大气科学学报, 2013, 36(2): 165-173.
|
[27] |
智协飞, 季晓东, 张璟, 等. 基于 TIGGE 资料的地面气温和降水的多模式集成预报[J]. 大气科学学报, 2013, 36(3): 257-266.
|
[28] |
RICHARDSON D, BUIZZA R, HAGEDORN R. Final report of the 1st Workshop on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)[R]. World Meteorological Organization WMO/TD, 2005.
|
[29] |
Sounding data[DB/OL].[2017-01-20].http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/seasia.html
|
[30] |
TALAGRAND O, VAUTARD R, STRAUSS B. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems[C]//Proceedings of ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997, 1: 25.
|
[31] |
BRIER G W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1950, 78(1): 1-3.
|
[32] |
李莉, 李应林, 田华, 等. T213 全球集合预报系统性误差订正研究[J]. 气象, 2011, 37(1): 31-38.
|
[33] |
HAMILL T M, D'ENTREMONT R P, BUNTIN J T. A description of the air force real-time nephanalysis model[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1992, 7(2): 288-306.
|
[34] |
HAMILL T M, WHITAKER J S, SNYDER C. Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalmanfilter[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2001, 129(11): 2776-2790.
|
[35] |
CARTWRIGHT T J, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts in the southeastern United States[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2007, 22(4): 873-886.
|
[36] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, KISHTAWAL C M, ZHANG Z, et al. Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2000, 13(23): 4196-4216.
|
[37] |
HE C, ZHI X, YOU Q, et al. Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2015, 127(4): 467-479.
|
[38] |
MURPHY A H, EPSTEIN E S. Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1989, 117(3): 572-582.
|
[39] |
NIU R, ZHAI P. Synoptic verification of medium-extended-range forecasts of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high and South Asian high based on multi-center TIGGE data[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2013, 27(5): 725-741.
|
[40] |
NIU R, ZHAI P, ZHOU B. Evaluation of forecast performance of Asian summer monsoon low-level winds using the TIGGE dataset[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2015, 30(2): 455-470.
|