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Forecast and analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by TRP-SEAMRD model

  • 1.

    School of Physical Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

  • 2.

    School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230027, China

  • 3.

    Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230027, China

Cite this: JUSTC, 2020, 50(8): 1124-1133
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.08.012
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  • Received Date: June 25, 2020
  • Revised Date: August 21, 2020
  • Accepted Date: August 21, 2020
  • Published Date: August 30, 2020
    Abstract
  • The traditional SEIR（susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed） model is a simplified dynamical predictive model which does not consider the impact of changes in the anti-epidemic policy. We take the US anti-epidemic policy and the incubation period characteristic of COVID-19 into account to propose the TRP-SEAMRD(test-restricted-phased SEAMRD) model for the pandemic in US. The model fits well with the figures of COVID-19 infections, recovery and death in the United States during February ~ August 2020. According to the data generated from the model, some of the characteristics of COVID-19 can be abstracted. Based on the TRP-SEAMRD model, we can analyze the impact of the improper anti-epidemic policy at the early stage of the epidemic.The effect of the subsequent “stay at home”epidemic controlling measures is also considered and analyzed. Finally, future development of the pandemic in the US under different degrees of social control is simulated,offering a reference for formulating scientific anti-epidemic measures.
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